Predictions about North Korea following death of Kim Jong-il.

Predictions on North Korea: 

1) There is little chance of a popular uprising against the Kims. If Kim Jong-un loses power it will almost certainly happen at the hand of a general. 

2) China will work very hard to ensure there is either no coup, or that the generals responsible for it are committed to a future in which NK remains allied with China and at odds with SK. 

3) It will be very hard for the America and its friends to leverage the same kind of pressure that China can bring to bear against NK. We simply don't have the extensive ties to NK that China does. This suggests that the most likely outcome will be a NK ruled by Kim Jong-un or generals with close ties to China. 

4) It is extremely unlikely that Kim Jong-un will be able to enact meaningful social, political, and economic reforms. He inherited all of his legitimacy from his father and grandfather. Any reform he implements implicitly questions their policies--i.e., the very foundation of his own legitimacy. 

5) In the event of the removal of Kim Jong-un, NK will have its first real opportunity to enact reforms. Expect tepid economic reforms along the lines China first tried following the death of Mao, and minimal social and political reforms. NK has been unable to reform because of the family lineage and legitimacy question, and because reform increased the likelihood that average Koreans would realize that an incredible foundation of lies upheld the Kim clan. 

6) A major war between the two Koreas (and involving the US) is an unlikely outcome. However, hawks within NK have incentive to instigate small scale military actions to keep relations tense and therefore bolster the argument that these generals are important.

7) Of the above, the least certain is China'a ability to shape NK outcomes. North Koreans are very serious about their independence, and would accept with only the greatest difficulty the idea of being more dependent on China. Expect NK to lean to China strongly, but also make appeasement moves toward Japan and the US to diminish Chinese influence. Given that the generals in NK know they will end up being hot dog vendors in the event of a reunified Korea, they will be disinclined to reach out to SK. The Korean nation is likely to remain divided for quite some time.

Let's hope the last point is wrong.  How prescient will this post prove over the next 1-10 years?